Wednesday, August 26, 2009

How do 90,000 swine flu deaths compare?

OK, this doesn't sound very good:

Swine flu could cause as many as 90,000 US deaths: White House

"The epidemic, it said, "could cause between 30,000 and 90,000 deaths in the United States, concentrated among children and young adults," it said.

That compares with 30,000 to 40,000 deaths from seasonal flu each year, mainly among people over age 65."



Now, if you make it 65, then while you don't want to die earlier than necessary, at least you made it to 65. But these other statistics for "children and young adults", which you read elsewhere can range up to people born after 1957 -- see below -- that could be disruptive. And tragic. Imagine if a child catches swine flu at school, brings it home, has a 1 or 2 day bout -- and then one of his parents dies from it? There will probably be tragic and disruptive stories like this, even if the death toll is on the low end.

See Below: (excerpted from another news story) The H1N1 strain is genetically related to the 1918 Spanish Flu that killed an estimated 50 million people. Variations of the Spanish Flu circulated widely until about 1957, when they were pushed aside by other flu strains. People whose first exposure to a flu virus was one of those Spanish Flu relatives may have greater immunity to the current pandemic, Shaw said.

I wanted to know how this 30,000-90,000 range compared to other causes of death. Turns out it's right up there with car accidents (40-45,000 a year) and we all know how terrifyingly tragic that can be if an otherwise young, healthy, hearty person dies suddenly in a car accident. (And since it's happened to a family friend, I know whereof I speak.)

Deaths and mortality

or

Top Ten Causes of Death - Top 10 Causes of Death (2009 Almanac)

"Car Accidents in 2006 were 42,642 plus 2,575, 000 injuries."

(No, I don't know why this is on the "Get Fit through Gardening" Web site.)

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