Tuesday, May 13, 2014
Inspired by "Game of Thrones"
This little graphic I made was inspired by "Game of Thrones", which is about a world in which the seasons and climate are finally shifting after an apparent years-long warm spell. Thus, the catch phrase that appeared frequently in the promos was "Winter Is Coming".
Well, here on Earth (rather than Westeros), we may be waiting for the appearance of an El Niño event this summer, which could also influence the next North American winter, but in a warm way. But we who are knowledgeable about climate and climate change know that the Earth's baseline temperature has been rising, and a decent El Niño event will raise global temperatures, as has happened for previous El Niño events. The 1997-1998 El Niño was so big, in fact, that its peak temperatures were what the warming Earth was expected to get to 10 years later. That is one of the reasons the skeptics/deniers that don't know and don't want to know what is really happening with Earth's climate make the specious claim that there hasn't been any warming for the past 15 years or so.
Well, the increasing greenhouse gases are putting the heat somewhere, and that somewhere is very, very, very likely the ocean. And apparently one of the main ways that the oceans give up this increase in heat back to the atmosphere is via the agency of an El Niño event.
So with the next event reaching a 65% probability or so, due primarily to a surfacing giant mass of overheated Pacific Ocean water (see below), I decided it was safe to say that we have something to look forward to. As shown below. The diagram shows the warm water coming to the surface. If the air over the ocean starts warming and getting moister from the evaporation, then we will indeed have to say hello to the latest El Niño. And this could actually be good for California and the desert Southwest, as the storminess associated with "The Kid" interannually variable weather event should bring more rain and snow to the areas that need it, areas that need reservoirs filled and river levels raised, areas that need irrigation water and increased snowpack and lots of other important water resources restored toward an at least minimally normal level.
Feel free to send this around and spread the word.
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