The skeptical bait-and-switch

OK, about that climate conference. Two posts ago, there's a link called "What Planetary Emergency?" IN it, we find:

"Gore flat out stated, "The warming ocean waters are also causing stronger typhoons and cyclones and hurricanes." [ Do you see anything about hurricane numbers or frequency in that statement?]

NOW WATCH WHAT HAPPENS -- there's a magician in the house:

Goldenberg [hurricane expert from Miami] acknowledged that hurricanes have been more numerous in the North Atlantic in the last decade. But when one looks at the data from the 20th century two, factors stand out. First, the number of hurricanes has increased So have sea surface temperatures. QED: global warming causes more hurricanes, right? Not so fast, says Goldenberg. The perceived increase in the number of hurricanes is actually the result of observational biases. With the advent of satellites, scientists have become much better at finding and identifying hurricanes. In the first half of the 20th century, he pointed out, if a storm didn't come close to land, researchers would often miss it.

The second factor is that researchers have identified a multi-decadal pattern in the frequency of hurricanes in the North Atlantic. There was a very active period between 1870 and 1900, a slow-down between 1900 and 1925, another active period between 1926 and 1970, a period of fewer storms between 1970 and 1995, and the beginning of a new active period around 1995. According to Goldenberg, this new active period will probably last another 20 to 30 years. Goldenberg was a co-author of a 2001 study published in Science which concluded:

Tropical North Atlantic SST [sea surface temperature] has exhibited a warming trend of [about] ) 0.3°C over the last 100 years; whereas Atlantic hurricane activity has not exhibited trend-like variability, but rather distinct multidecadal cycles....The possibility exists that the unprecedented activity since 1995 is the result of a combination of the multidecadal-scale changes in the Atlantic SSTs (and vertical shear) along with the additional increase in SSTs resulting from the long-term warming trend. It is, however, equally possible that the current active period (1995-2000) only appears more active than the previous active period (1926-1970) due to the better observational network in place.

Since this study was published, much more data on hurricane trends has been collected and analyzed. "Not a single scientist at the hurricane center believes that global warming has had any measurable impact on hurricane numbers and strength," concluded Goldenberg. He also suggested that some proponents of the idea that global warming is exacerbating tropical storms have backed off lately. Clearly the former vice president hasn't gotten the news yet.

OK, so what we see is that all Goldenberg talked about was hurricane numbers -- he just tossed in that bit about strength at the end, but didn't say a single thing about it in his presentation! He made Gore's statement DISAPPEAR and attacked what is commonly called a "strawman" in its place, to make the former Vice Prez and Nobel Prize winner look bad. No doubt the gullible flock listening applauded this trick vigorously.

Regarding hurricane strength: Kerry Emanuel reduced his confidence level in a 2008 paper compared to 2005 -- in April 2008, to be exact. But he should have waited until September:

Are hurricanes growing stronger?

Actual link to the paper: The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones (this is a PDF document)

Gore wins, and Goldenberg is caught with his hand in the magic hat. Nice try.