Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Plan now for 2050's climate

Climate Conditions in 2050 Crucial to Avoid Harmful Impacts in 2100

Forget all that Climategate nonsense. Real scientists, several of which I listed for Tom Fuller yesterday, are ignoring all that and proceeding with their basic research. This paper is getting airplay in the realm of reality, and it's sobering. It basically says, if we want to meet our goals for the century, which particularly means keeping the planet in such a state that it won't be collapsing, climate- and ecosystem-wise, as our grandkids try to cope with what's happening,

THEN where the world is at the half-century mark will be very critical.

"The team focused on how emissions levels in 2050 would affect the feasibility of meeting end-of-century temperature targets of either 2 or 3 degrees Celsius (about 3.5 degrees or 5.5 degrees Fahrenheit, respectively) above the pre-industrial average."

So how's that look?

In a paragraph, not good.

"Our simulations show that in some cases, even if we do everything possible to reduce emissions between now and 2050, we'd only have even odds of hitting the 2 degree target-and then only if we also did everything possible over the second half of the century too," says co-author and IIASA scientist Keywan Riahi.

According to the article, conventional alternatives (like nuclear, of course) were considered, but not some of the more outlandish ideas, such as injecting sulfates in the atmosphere, and nuclear fusion.

Yes, if we could all have our own Mr. Fusion reactors ("Back to the Future", remember?) we'd not have much of a problem.

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