Saturday, June 2, 2012
Figure 4 with caption
There have only been a couple of articles about the Australian hockey stick, which is a definite poke-in-the-eye to the climate warming skeptical factory that keeps churning out articles disparaging what is now a paper now 14 years in the past. (But why should they change their ill-begotten tactics now?)
But maybe they'll have to, ultimately. Because if a pretty-much-independent hockey stick could be found, that would make all the criticisms of the original ring more hollow than they already do. And that's the case with this one, I think. Now, the critical "hockey stick" figure is Figure 4. The two representations I've seen have not included the caption, which I think has critical information. So that's what I got. I don't subscribe to the journal, I went to the library and downloaded the PDF, mailed it to myself, and then copied the figure out of it.
One key thing to note is that the interesting peak around 1300 isn't as reliable as other periods. But the oft-described pattern is here; a bit warmer from 1200-1600, then a bit cooler from 1600-1900, and then the 20th century warming -- caused by rapid industrialization and increased emissions of GHGs (you know what that means).
And I think the deep "valley", post-1800, has to be "eighteen hunderd and froze ta death", i.e., the year without a summer, caused by the eruption of Mount Tambora.
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