Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Predicting Phelps progress at U.S. Olympic Trials

Articles out today that Michael Phelps has an ambitious program planned for the U.S. Olympic Trials.  The linked article also indicates that it's possible that Phelps might drop the 100 freestyle.  I don't think he will, because he only has to finish 6th to be on the relay, at least as an alternate, and that's probably a medal.   I think it's likely that he won't swim the 200 backstroke, ultimately.   I also think that he might have trouble making the final in the 400 IM, let alone qualifying by finishing first or second, given his reported training laxity.   200 fly is a lock, but the 100 fly, given his penchant for coming back late, is not a lock.  200 IM is probably another lock, I don't see anyone touching him or Lochte in that.  200 free also a relay spot, and he's still one of the best.  

So I expect him to qualify in the 200 Fly, IM, and Free, question marks in the 400 IM and 200 back, and likely on the relay in the 100 Free.

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