We have known for a long time, and the political map bears this out, that Romney has to run the table to get the Electoral College votes to win. And currently, and this is VERY CURRENT (meaning that events could make it change*), there are no trends pushing him in that direction.
What is certain and key and obvious now is that massive television ad campaigns will waste a lot of money, because there are so few voters who have yet to make up their minds or who would possibly change their minds. So the key now, huge debate gaffes notwithstanding, is the mechanics of the election and voting: getting the voters to the polls, counting votes correctly, avoiding voter suppression tactics (I don't think the national campaigns would condone or do anything like that, but 'motivated individuals' might take it upon themselves), counting absentee ballots, and the influence of local races, like the Senate campaign in Missouri and the effect of Akin's comments nationwide.
Thus, I dare hope, given what we know right now. But I don't dare hope too much. One thing I think true; if Virginia swings more strongly to Obama, that would be a bellwether sign.
* like the attacks in Libya
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