Thursday, September 20, 2012

More notes on the election in Virginia (and Florida)


I see Virginia as key, indicating the direction of the nation, which is why I keep looking at it.  Here's news on the Senate race:

Senate polls:  Democrats gaining (HuffPost)

"And in Virginia, one of the most consistently close races in the country, five of seven polls conducted since the Democratic convention have shown Democrat Tim Kaine leading, with margins varying between 1 and 8 percentage points."

Why?  Virginia is a cross-section:  rural, mountainous, and urban, with African-American strongholds, conservative white people strongholds, conservative Christian strongholds, liberal Democratic suburbs, conservative Republican suburbs; just about everything.  If not just Obama but Kaine are nudging ahead, that means that the little things are pushing the Democrats ahead.  A few more women are perceiving the dangers that Republicans pose to their rights and freedoms;  intelligent suburbanites are seeing how tissue paper thin the Republican tickets positions are.  And it could be enough.

Here's Obama vs. Romney in Virginia from the Huffington Post.  The Fox News poll, September 16-18, has Obama 49%, Romney 42%.   The polls keep edging him ahead beyond the margin-of-error.

I sure hope so.

Also from Florida:
"In Florida eight of nine new polls conducted in early September show Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) leading Republican challenger Rep. Connie Mack. The HuffPost Pollster chart currently gives Nelson a 7 percentage point lead (46.7 to 39.4 percent) roughly double the margins favoring the Democrat earlier in the year."

That's a good wind blowing, too.  (Obama vs. Romney in Florida -- also a lead just outside the margin of error).


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