Friday, May 15, 2009

In case someone asks if environmental treaties work...

This is a really impressive examination of what would have happened, globally, if the Montreal Protocol controlling chlorofluorocarbons had not been enacted internationally:

World Without Ozone

Hearken back and remember that this was opposed too, notably by Washington governor Dixy Lee Ray. There's a lot of lessons to be learned here; Ray was smart (a marine biologist), and she was conservative. Did her conservatism bias her viewpoint? I don't know, but out of her field on atmospheric ozone, she was very wrong. Since she wrote books critical of the environmental movement in general, you have to wonder. (Current parallel example on climate change: Dr. Roy Spencer, but Spencer's specialty is actually in the general field of climate change).

The other thing to be realized here is that the science was compelling, and the alternative (depicted in the article) was utterly unacceptable. So realizing that humankind's actions can indeed affect the global environment (which somehow a large multitude on the conservative side still manage to cognitively dissonate out of of their thought processes), humankind managed to pass a global treaty that addressed the problem, and which truly managed to avert an unimaginable (but model-able) future.

Climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions is a tougher nut to crack because CO2 in particular is so tied to the energy demands of civilization. But were the nations of the world to act with the urgency that was exampled by the Montreal Protocol (rather than the piecemeal baby steps of a Kyoto protocol), something could actually be accomplished. But there has to be resolve; there has to be commitment; there has to be a widespread realization that the world subjected to rapid warming (catastrophic or not, serious is bad enough) is an unacceptable future for humankind.

What's it going to take to wake our collective *sses up? What's the global warming equivalent of the Antarctic ozone hole? Well, here's the deal: we need a new Arctic sea ice minimum extent during this minimal cold spell the globe is experiencing. That would be tough for the propagandists and their gullible spreaders of mistruth to explain. Much as I don't want to pray for a rapid dimunition of the vital Arctic ice cap, I can hardly think of anything else that would garner sufficient attention.

Melt, baby, melt.

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