Thursday, August 13, 2009

If I were in charge, I'd spend the money

OK, a couple of articles here about NASA not being able to finish the job of finding potential Earth-killer (or at least really-bad-day) asteroid/comet impactors. Now, the chances of anything hitting us and causing a major problem are small. I can say that confidently because the only thing that could have done major damage [since 1900], had it hit a populated area, was the Tunguska object. (The Teton bolide wasn't small potatoes, either.) Now, according to reports, there have been several 1-10 meter objects detected by DOD satellites, or an impact on the Greenland ice. And we know that smaller objects have recently hit Park Forest, Illinois; the Sudan; and in Peru.

That Park Forest incident should have been a wake-up call. Estimates put the size of the object at 10-25 tons and the size of a small car. Let's think a bit; what if it had been 25-50 tons and the size of a big bus? That would have made some people take notice.

Now, we're casting about for something to do with a space program. And there are feasibility studies out there indicating it'd probably be easier to land on and sample a near-Earth asteroid than it would be to get to Mars. And Mars is a big place; way too much to figure out; send a fleet of robotic landers instead. Build in more redundancy than the current landers have (like a solar panel cleaner) and set them loose. WAY more bang for the buck, even if a couple get lost, than sending humans and all their comestibles. In contrast, landing on an asteroid would pretty much allow the asteroidnauts to figure out the whole place in one visit -- and might help us in the event that a rogue is found with a very high probability of eventual impact.

Arthur C. Clarke was right; if a big impact did happen, causing major loss of life and art (I'm pretty sure the opening scene of Rendesvous with Rama was an impact on Venice), the whole world would vow "Never again". In my most humble Oakdenish opinion, why not just say "Never if we can help it?"

Here's the articles:

We cannot afford to monitor all killer asteroids, warns NASA

NASA needs more money to hunt killer space rocks, report says

Spending sufficient money to find and study these objects is worth the investment, I think. But I still think back to what someone said, to whit: "The one that is going to nail us is the one we don't see coming." How comforting is that... ?

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