Iceland could get coldur

 

The nation and island of Iceland is worried about something that could make them much, much colder. ("Coldur" is not actually the Norse god or giant of cold, but he could be. It's actually Skaði, a giantess. You pronounce it.)

If the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapses, the result would be a Younger Dryas replay, in which case the North Atlantic and Europe get a lot colder. And since Iceland is smack dab right there in the middle of the North Atlantic, that might not be good at all.

Which is why Iceland considers this problem, which happens to be a consequence of Global Warming, a security problem.  A couple of articles about this are linked below;  the Washington Post article is probably behind a subscription, but if it's your first of the month, you might still be able to read it.

Washington Post:  Why this country declared an ocean current collapse a national security risk

"Sometime over the next 100 years, human-driven warming could disrupt a vital ocean current that carries heat northward from the tropics. After this breach, most of the world would keep getting hotter — but northern Europe would cool substantially, with Iceland at the center of a deep freeze. Climate modeling shows Icelandic winter extremes plunging to an unprecedented minus-50 degrees Fahrenheit. Sea ice could surround the country for the first time since it was settled by Vikings."

"As a first step, Iceland has tried to remind other countries that cutting greenhouse gas emissions reduces the odds of planet-altering crises. At the United Nations’ global climate conference in November, Iceland’s climate minister told delegates that “the risk of large, abrupt change is real,” and that present-day policies could determine whether the next generation inherits “a managed transition or an unmanaged collapse.”

Iceland Review:  Scientists Warn Ocean Current Shift Could Alter Iceland’s Climate

"Recent modelling studies examining high global emissions scenarios suggest that the AMOC could weaken substantially and, in some cases, eventually stop.

A study published last August found that in nine high-emissions models considered, the circulation weakened and ultimately ceased.

Even if global climate targets under the Paris Agreement are met, researchers estimate the probability of collapse at approximately 25 percent.

Potential impacts for Iceland include significantly colder winters and expanded sea ice. The Icelandic Meteorological Office has indicated that in such a scenario, conditions could change dramatically."

"Iceland has included the possibility of AMOC disruption in its national security risk assessments and plans to integrate the scenario into its risk management strategy by 2028."