Friday, August 20, 2010

Pan Pacific Championships Day 2 analysis

OK, the big story was that Phelps didn't make the A Final in the 400 IM, because Lochte and Clary swam way too fast to give him a chance to get there. He's obviously not in shape for the 400 IM, a rough race. I disagree with plans to get him to swim it in London. I figure he swims the 100 and 200 fly, 200 free, and 200 IM; with three relays (400 and 800 free, and 400 medley where he swims the fly leg), he'd still have a chance for seven more medals. That's prodigious! Why burden him with a tough event that he's already proven himself in?

OK, so here's my day 2 recap. I already see that day 3 has some expected relay wins by the U.S.

Women's 100 Free: as I tweeted, Natalie Coughlin turns the tables on Emily Seebohm, who won the 100 back. Dana Vollmer 3rd.

Men's 100 Free: Big win from Nathan Adrian. Cesar Cielo 3rd, Olympic hero Jason Lezak 4th (on not much training and a new kid to boot).

Women's 100 Breaststroke: Rebecca Soni takes down Lethal Leisel (Jones) of Australia, with a blistering nearly-the-first-new WR in a non-buoyant suit. Amanda Beard 5th, (on not much training and a new kid to boot, which is really impressive considering she gave BIRTH to the kid).

Men's 100 Breaststroke: Japanese samurai warrior Kitajima wins another title. The 200 should be interesting, because Shanteau looked very strong at the U.S. Championships.

Women's 400 IM: Lizzy Beisel takes it. Stephanie Rice isn't here. I wonder how she's doing these days?

Men's 400 IM: as I said in the beginning, the press treats it like a big story that Phelps didn't make the A final, when it's obvious that this would be his toughest event. The A Final goes as expected, Lochte and Clary 1-2.

Women's 50 Back: Sophie Edington of Australia gets to the wall first.

Men's 50 Back: A winner from Japan not named Kitajima! In this case, it's Junya Koga.

Women's 800 free relay: U.S., as I figured was likely, wins by over a second over the Aussie women. The time is nowhere close to the WR: the accumulative effect of the suits at higher speeds shows clearly here.

Men's 800 free relay: Phelps makes up for the 400 IM with a 1:45.62 leadoff leg. (Lochte won the actual event in 1:45.30.) The U.S. men (Vanderkaay, Berens, and Lochte following) win by a swimming country mile, 8 seconds over Japan. Wow. 6 seconds off the suit-aided WR from the Worlds. More interestingly, Phelps' time is 2 seconds off his suit-aided best, and 3 seconds off Biedermann's WR. What's Biedermann done this summer? 1:46.06 last week, and 1:45.84 at the German championships.

I'd say that the playing field is pretty level now.

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