Murray and predictions

UNFORTUNATELY, this January I didn't predict that Andy Murray would win Wimbledon this year, breaking the famed 77-year British drought at the championships.   Last year I predicted Murray would win his first major and he came through at the U.S. Open after knocking off R-Fed at the Olympics.  He has definitely come into his own, and the general excellence of the top three:  Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray -- should keep us entertained for awhile in men's tennis.  As for Federer, his time of incredible dominance may have passed, but he's so astonishingly good he might still have one major left in him.  Even if he doesn't, he's one of the greatest ever, if not THE greatest ever.

And also UNFORTUNATELY, I didn't pick Marion Bartoli to win a major, including Wimbledon. Who would have done that?  That would have been a dangerous prediction, and really unlikely. But due to the demise of the top players, she made the best of her chance and pulled off a big surprise. 

Now, considering that my one tennis prediction this year was that Caroline Wozniacki would win a major, and that's not likely to happen, and also considering we're halfway through the year, I thought now would be a good time to revisit my undangerous 2013 predictions, and see how I'm doing.  Some of them were pretty unlikely and one of them was done for the sake of love (or something like it), which would have been nice but also very unexpected, despite the excellence of the subject matter.

1. Caroline Wozniacki wins a tennis Grand Slam
Evaluation:  Not likely.  She's slid down the rankings and doesn't appear to be making a run to be (or beat) number one.

2. McCauliffe elected governor in Virginia
Evaluation:  Have to wait until November, but Cuccinelli is behind on money and big money donors aren't donating yet, as noted in a couple of recent posts.  Plus, the Virginia GOP nominated a crazy candidate for Lieutenant Governor, and any linkage between him and the on-edge-of-crazy Coochie will likely make any independents very leery of this level of Tea Party craziness in charge of Virginia.  Still, McAuliffe is liberal, linked to the Clintons, and perceived as a candidate of convenience (i.e., he decided that he wanted to run for office and decided Virginia was as good a place as any to do that).  So though I'm hopeful, and totally concerned for the neighboring state if someone as flat out conservatively nutty as Cuccinelli gets elected, this one's not a sure thing by any means.

3. Arctic sea ice doesn't set new minimum record;  skeptics publicize this everywhere
Evaluation:  Can't tell, but the low sea ice volume and potential actual open sea right near the North Pole right now (early July) might mean I'm wrong.  A new sea ice minimum would indicate we really are on an accelerating warming path, and the skeptics won't publicize this. But the climate science community should exploit it for all it is worth, because it is real and unDENIABLE.

4. Jennifer Aniston has a baby
Evaluation:  Wedding has been postponed to Justin Theroux, and so she isn't apparently going the shotgun route.  Put this in the "not happening" column.

5. Mitch McConnell has a heart attack and dies (only wishing here - skip that one)
Evaluation:   Mitch is still here with us, darn the luck.

5. The GOP House fights another pitched battle over raising the debt ceiling, and only capitulates when China threatens to cause us economic harm because our pending recession is hurting their economy.
Evaluation:   Uncertain.  Showdown is coming in September.  Republicans want to use it again for political gain and gamesmanship.  Assholes every one.

6. The U.S. Men's Soccer team fails to qualify for the 2014 FIFA World Cup.
Evaluation:   They're doing better than expected.  Jozy Altidore is turning into an international scorer and a threat that makes other teams worry.  A ways to go yet, but they look better than they did.

7. Playboy will make an inspired choice for Playmate - Audrey Nicole (@msaudreynicole).
Evaluation:  Even though this Playboy model is beatiful in terms of facial features, and stunningly spectacular in the nude body department, I don't think she's on Playboy's list for the monthly spot. She should be.

8. Due to the nation's budget problems, several large national parks will close for at least a few days during the summer vacation season, to demonstrate how bad the situation is.
Evaluation:   Though some areas opened late or didn't open, maintenance has been deferred, park programs have been canceled, less summer staff have been hired, and a host of other things (due to sequestration) no major parks appear to be in danger of closure. 

9. Joe Lieberman gets a position in the Obama administration.
Evaluation:  What has happened to Joe, anyway?  Actually, he joined a New York law firm. No apparent administration position in the offing, but in a pinch, the Prez could still tap him.

10. A major satellite collision in space emphasizes the space debris problem.
Evaluation:  This one sorta came true twice.  I've always been concerned about an asteroid impact, and didn't predict one, but the Chelyabinsk meteor was something that showed this potential concern area is still a real concern area, despite the low likelihood.  And then something hit a little Ecuadorian cubesat (their first ever), making this prediction come true actually. 

So, here's my current score:
Not going to happen:  3
Have to wait and see:  6
Fulfilled:  1

I think I've still got a good shot of 2 and 5 happening.  Even though I don't think Audrey will be centerfolded, I'll wait til January to declare that one wrong, even though I didn't think it was likely to begin with.   And I put Woz winning the U.S. Open at zero chance, even though it hasn't technically occurred yet.

Oh well, this was all for fun.  But next year, I'm going to try a little harder to predict things that I think will happen.

See you in December.