Tuesday, October 23, 2018

I told Roger Pielke Jr. this many times, and he blocked me


Roger Pielke Jr. is a strange kind of climate change skeptic / denier.  He's not really a climate scientist (his father is closer to that) -- he's more of a climate economist.  Wikipedia has a really interesting introduction about him:
Roger A. Pielke Jr. is an American political scientist and professor and the director of the Sports Governance Center within the Department of Athletics at the Center for Science and Technology Policy Research at the University of Colorado Boulder.
Which kind of makes you wonder why he has climate scientist-like opinions, anyway (must be his father's influence, and actually, I think it probably is).

Anyway, one of the things Roger Pielke Jr. said in print, more than once, was that despite climate change, or in a way of saying climate change isn't that bad, that flood damage wasn't increasing.  I determined that he was taking about floods where the river rises slowly and inundates large cities or areas.  He wasn't talking about flash floods, which I figured must be increasing because of the known statistically significant increase in extreme one-day rainfall events, both in the United States and globally.   (Here's something he wrote about it, in 2011. Note that he talks about "maximum river flows" - the traditional definition of a flood.)  A few years later, he even said that flood damage is decreasing, as a portion of GDP.  Again, the kind of flood being considered was not flash flooding, which I figured was increasing, and which wasn't included in this economic evaluation.

Now, one might argue that one big river-rise flood does a lot more damage than a few flash floods.  Maybe that's correct.  Or maybe not, because the river has to rise where there is something to damage.  But how many flash floods adds up to one river rise flood?  Good question. Obviously more flash floods will cause more damage from flash flooding.  And we might look at how bad the flash flooding in Japan was earlier this year to determine if there's a significant economic impact.

Roger Pielke Jr. and I discussed this issue a few times on Twitter.  After a few times of going at it, he blocked me.

Well, it turns out ... I was right !

Rising temperatures and human activity are increasing storm runoff and flash floods
"Columbia Engineering researchers have demonstrated for the first time that runoff extremes have been dramatically increasing in response to climate and human-induced changes. Their findings, published today in Nature Communications, show a large increase in both precipitation and runoff extremes driven by both human activity and climate change."
So Roger Pielke Jr., put that in your peace pipe and smoke it.

(Somebody tell him about this, OK?)