Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Cold weather doesn't prove anything

Oh my: parts of the United States are having a cold autumn!

The Cold War Hits Home: October in Like a Lion, Out Like a Fridge

And even parts of Europe:
"October 22nd. A weather station in Berchtesgaden National Park in Bavaria has recorded the coldest temperature ever in Germany during the month of October. The thermometer dipped to -24.3C or -11.7F. Clear skies, calm winds and fresh snow was the perfect combination for the record chill. The city of Augsburg, Germany has been 9.3 degrees colder than average during the past week. Prague in the Czech Republic is supposed to be in the mid 50s at this time of year. They had 3 days with temperatures stuck in the 30s and even picked up some snow flurries."

But meanwhile:

Tropical air creates balmy Britain

and

Heatwave sweeps across Sydney

"A Bureau on Meteorology spokesman said no records were broken on Wednesday but the warm October temperatures were becoming more common.

"It's getting a bit more common to get temperatures like that, so you might get two or three October days a year where you see temperatures around 35 degrees," the spokesman told AAP.

"We had temperatures like that last summer, around January, February but we had a similar warm outbreak like this last September."

He said warm temperatures in mid-spring were becoming "more normal".


But wait, there's more:

In China:

Water shortage hits as Jiangxi drought lingers

"The average temperature for September was 2.5 degrees Celsius above average, equaling the record high of 26.7 degrees set in 1963. The rainfall so far this month was only 6 millimeters, 90 percent less than normal."

And finally, in Alaska (I recommend reading the whole post, if you've got the time):

News from the Arctic: October to date

"The table below gives locations and October 2009 temperature anomalies to date:
LocationTemp. Anom. (°F)
Fairbanks+7.7
Barrow+10.3
Kotzebue+6.6
Nome+3.3
McGrath+8.9
Valdez+3.2
Bethel+5.7
Cold Bay+2.7
King Salmon+8.0
Kodiak Island+4.1
Yakutat+2.6

They won't use these to amend their comments. I don't use them to PROVE my point, but to point out the fallacy in theirs. McGrath, by the way, had a day where the minimum and maximum temperatures BOTH broke the old record high. You know what to do with that information, right?

UPDATE: McGrath broke its all-time October high on 10 October with a temperature of 67°F. The minimum temperature of 49°F broke the previous record high minimum for the date, but not the old record high temperature of 55°F."

Thus, it's perfectly true: colder-than-normal temperatures somewhere don't prove anything. But they do help sway susceptible minds.

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