-- and we are seeing more and more clear definitive examples of that. We stand near the end of this first decade of the 21st century on the cusp of a Crave New World; a world in which we crave things that we either need or want, things that if we get them will be costly and expensive compared to their relative abundance only a few short years ago.
In short, I'm talking about two things: 1, water, and 2, fish.
1. WATER
One would expect that in desert arid countries, the first manifestations of water shortages and their impact on the populace would be perceived. That would be quite true, and the apparent leader in this race that no country wants to win is Yemen. My lead is a recent story, but it is easy to go back and find out that this is not "new" News:
2009: Yemen's water crisis a Mideast warning
Aquifers are being depleted and lowered, mountainous areas are drying up, and (as I refer to my post on the poisoned Pearl River from yesterday), social unrest is beginning to burgeon because of it.
Rather than summarize beyond that (the link is clickable, of course), I'll provide more click-fodder.
2005: Yemen: Focus on water shortage
2006: Yemen Water Crisis is "Extreme", World Bank
2007: Yemen faces water shortage
Suffering from water shortage in Yemen
2008: Yemen faces dangerous water shortage
"Yemen’s minister of environment and water says the country’s water supply has collapsed and the situation is irreversible, and that a total loss of water supply cannot be stopped, only delayed.
Yemen’s minister Abdul-Rahman al-Iryani told reporters, “This is almost inevitable because of the geography and climate of Yemen, coupled with uncontrolled population growth and very low capacity for managing resources,”
The country is reliant on groundwater, which is not being replaced quickly enough to cope with a rapidly rising population, growing at 3% a year. The country’s 21 aquifers can no longer keep pace with demand."
It's not like they can say they didn't see it coming. But what strategies can be conceived to deal with it? Apparently, part of the problem is the cultivation of qat, a narcotic herb that lots of Yemeni men chew. Well, I guess one of the things they could do is get other countries to grow qat -- but then what do you do with the farmers in Yemen who lose this cash crop?
2. FISH
Actually, first of all, the news article is sort-of good, in a bad way. That's because scientists are urging a total bluefin tuna fishing ban. IF it could get done -- IF it could show the expected results (which are noted in the 2nd article) -- this demonstration that drastic conservation measures can actually provide results would be great for a lot of other depleted fisheries, including the Chesapeake Bay menhaden I wrote about.
Scientists back bluefin tuna ban
Scientists Say Ban Atlantic Bluefin Tuna Trade–and Sushi Chefs Shudder
Tuna ban justified by science
The hunt for tuna: a tough catch
10 days to decision.
And here's the other part of the picture:
Hong Kong's ghostly seas warn of looming global tragedy
This article paints an even more dire picture of the situation, in a place that epitomizes the dangers of over-consumption. Hong Kong is humans cheek-by-jowl, and they have to eat, and there's a tradition of eating seafood, as the article depicts. But Hong Kong has hardly any (if any) fish to catch, so they import everything, and their waters are polluted, either locally or from the poisoned, nutrient-laden waters flushing out of the Pearl River delta. But buried in the article (actually in a picture caption) is this nugget of hope, tiny as it may be, if there could somehow be a gestaltic realization by much of humanity that this trajectory has got to be averted.
"Across all regions, we are still seeing a troubling trend of increasing stock collapse," said Boris Worm of Canada's Dalhousie University, lead author of the study published in the journal Science in July.
"But this paper shows that our oceans are not a lost cause." Worm, a co-author of a pessimistic report in 2006 predicting that overfishing could lead to a total collapse of global seafood stocks by 2048, said the latest study had given him new hope. Several regions in the United States, Iceland and New Zealand had made significant progress in rebuilding stocks devastated by decades of overfishing through careful management strategies. "This means that management in those areas is setting the stage for ecological and economic recovery," Worm said.
"It's only a start - but it gives me hope that we have the ability to bring overfishing under control." Worm cautioned that the analysis - the most comprehensive to date - was mostly confined to managed fisheries in developed countries where long-term data on fish abundance is collected. The threat of collapse could thus be even higher in the remaining 75 percent of the world's fisheries. The study found that a range of management strategies helped protect and restore fishing stocks, including nets that allow smaller fish to escape, closing some areas to fishing and placing limits on the total allowable catch.
We are on the cusp of the next decade of the 21st century (2000-2009 is ten elapsed years, remember) -- we are on the edge of destruction of the lifestyle that many millions of us have become accustomed to.
What will be the impetus for change?
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