Germany's carbon emissions are going to go up

Germany's decision in the wake of Fukushima Daiichi to shut down all of their nuclear generating capacity is going to have a cost: both monetary and in terms of carbon emissions.

Trevor Sikorski, head of environmental market research at London investment bank Barclays Capital, calculates that Germany will emit an extra 300 million tonnes of carbon dioxide between now and 2020. That is more than the annual emissions of Italy and Spain combined under the EU's emissions trading scheme (ETS).

This quote is from The carbon cost of Germany's nuclear 'Nein danke!'

Why will it cost more money? Because the EU trades carbon emissions. They are going to try to become more efficient (a laudable goal everywhere), but here's what happens if it doesn't work:

But if Europe fails to cut emissions by raising efficiency, by 2020 the trading system will have a shortage of permits equivalent to 120 million tonnes of carbon, according to Barclays Capital. If so, on the basis of today's fossil fuel prices the carbon price would be forced up to €70 per tonne.

It is then that the supporters of the German nuclear shutdown may wish to reconsider. Had Germany kept its reactors going, the ETS [Emissions Trading Scheme] would have had surplus allowances even without the efficiency savings. "Germany will make it more expensive for everybody else. They are requiring a market price to be higher to meet the same reduction target," says Sikorski.

So, to repeat, shutting down existing nuclear power generating capacity is pretty dumb until there is something equivalent and renewable to take its place. And I don't see what that's going to be yet.