Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Is Earth doomed in 2880, or not?


Despite having serious uncertainties about what shape the human race will be in by 2880, I'm optimistic enough to think that there will still be humans here on Earth.  It's impossible to imagine what the Earth will actually be like almost nine centuries from now.  That's a LONG time.  (One small guess:  the average temperature then compared to now, for almost any place on Earth, will be higher.)

According to this probably-overdramatic Daily Mail article, there's an asteroid out there, 1950 DA, that (according to the article) has a good chance of hitting Earth.

Human life could be wiped out on March 16, 2880 because a huge asteroid is hurtling towards Earth - and experts don't know how to stop it

I suspected this was a bit hyped.  Phil Plait, writing in Slate, agrees.

No, a Huge Asteroid Is NOT “Set to Wipe Out Life on Earth in 2880”

"1950 DA is a bit of an exception, though. We have observations going back many decades (1950 is the year it was discovered), and we also have radar observations of it made in 2001, and those provide very accurate position measurements. This allows the orbit of 1950 DA to be determined farther into the future than most asteroids. Last year, another team of scientists looked into this. They accounted for a lot of small effects on the asteroid, including the YORP thrust, the gravity of the planets, the gravity of other asteroids, and so on. They found that the probability of an impact in 2880 is about 2.48 x 10-4, which is about 1 in 4,000. That’s really small."

I can rest easy.  About this, at least.

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