Thursday, September 25, 2014

Jason-2's view of the maybe El Niño


The Jason-2 satellite is an altimeter, which measures very small (but significant) differences in the height of the ocean surface by making repeated accurate measurements of the return time of a radar signal.  (By making repeated accurate measurements, the uncertainty is reduced and the accuracy is improved, the so-called "law of large numbers".)

Jason-2 is currently showing some elevated ocean surface height on the equatorial Pacific (red, yellow, and white), indicative of the presence of warm water, which is what happens during an El Niño.  This El Niño hasn't exactly gotten going like gangbusters, and it will be interesting to see if it graduates from El Niño conditions to an El Niño event.  Still, the longer that most of the Pacific Ocean stays warm, the more likely it is that 2014 will be an all-time high annual temperature record.

That would be bad.  But nice all the same.


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