Still too close, but better

Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate

Let's remember, these are Mitch McConnell's "Shutdown Republicans" who are running for the Senate.  Maybe that fact will pump these numbers up in the right places.

After Promising The End Of Government Shutdowns, Mitch McConnell Threatens Another Government Shutdown

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) pledged to strong arm President Obama into adopting a host of Republican policy priorities, from repealing the Affordable Care Act to undoing environmental regulations, should Republicans take back the senate in November. In the process, the Kentucky senator appeared to undermine his pledge to avoid future government shutdowns.

In an interview with Politico published on Wednesday, McConnell laid out a plan of attaching policy riders to must-pass spending measures and forcing Obama into a standoff: sign off on the bill or close down the federal government.

“We’re going to pass spending bills, and they’re going to have a lot of restrictions on the activities of the bureaucracy,” McConnell told the publication. Obama, McConnell added, “needs to be challenged, and the best way to do that is through the funding process. He would have to make a decision on a given bill, whether there’s more in it that he likes than dislikes.”

Plenty of reasons there not to vote Republican.