Sunday, January 11, 2015

Final evaluation of the 2014 undangerous predictions

So, 2014 is in the history books, and so now I can evaluate my 2014 undangerous predictions.  In a few days I will be offering both another set of Undangerous Predictions, as well as a new set of predictions, my "Edgy" predictions.  For the Edgy Predictions, I will be happy if any of them are correct.   For the Undangerous Predictions, I'd like to break even.

Let's see how 2014 turned out.

1. The U.S. men's soccer team won't make it out of the group round at the World Cup.
Discussion:  Happily this one was wrong.  I was glad the U.S. got into the elimination round, even though I got the prediction wrong.

Wrong:  1   Right:  0

2. Status quo in the 2014 national elections.
Discussion:   Unhappily this one was wrong, too.  But we'll see if the Republican takeover gives the GOP a long-term political advantage or turns out to be a problem for them (given the internal dichotomy within the party between the radical ultraconservative Tea Party idiots and the moderate GOP dummies.

Wrong:  2  Right:  0

3. Sandra Bullock wins Oscar for Best Actress for "Gravity".
Discussion:   As I noted, I got carried away by the "Gravity" hype and didn't pay attention to enough movie critics.  In my defense, there wasn't much to go on really early in the year.

Wrong:  3   Right: 0

4. There will be at least one 8+ (Richter scale) earthquake this year.
Discussion:    Got this one right pretty early in the year, April to be exact, when there was an 8.2 off the coast of Chile.  And my guess at the possible location was right, too.

Wrong:  3   Right:  1

5. Hillary Clinton decides she will run for President in 2016.
Discussion:  Too early for her.  I still think she'll have to ultimately run.

Wrong:  4   Right:  1

6. The Washington Nationals make the major league baseball playoffs again.
Discussion:   Yes, they did.  And they probably should have gone to the World Series had it not been for some unbelievable San Francisco Giants pitching (especially in an 18-inning game).

Wrong:  4   Right: 2

7. NASA's new satellite shows there's more precipitation than expected.
Discussion:    Too early for that evaluation, but there is some data.  Too soon for this one.  But have to call that wrong.

Wrong:  5   Right:   2

8.  There's an Entourage movie!

HERE's WHAT I WROTE: "Discussion:  Supposedly, they will start filming this early in 2014. Since it won't have a lot of post-production, I think they'll get it on screens by the end of the year.  Which means seeing the stupendously awesomely lovely Emmanuelle Chriqui on the big screen -- yay!   Side prediction - Emmanuelle will wear lingerie or a hot swimsuit at least once in the picture.  Side prediction #2:  Jeremy Piven will have an epic wig-out in the picture."

SOO... the movie is in the tank and will be released in 2015.  And the first trailer shows Jeremy Piven having an epic wig-out.  

I call this one right, even though I thought it might get released in 2014.  There is a movie, with a trailer and everything  (plus, at this point I need help on the score sheet.)

Wrong:  5   Right:  3

9.  There will be at least two landfalling hurricanes on the U.S. East Coast (or Gulf of Mexico coast) during the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
Discussion:    We got one.   And the meteorologists are still trying to figure out why there's been such a low number of U.S. landfalling hurricanes, not that the coastal residents of the U.S. mind that.  Note that Bermuda got smacked hard by Gonzalo, but still, I lose.

Wrong:  6   Right:   3

10. The Winter Olympics hockey final 4:
Discussion:  I predicted that the gold-medal team would be one of these four national teams:   Canada, the United States, Russia, or Sweden. Since Canada won, I got that one right.   I also predicted (though this doesn't count):  "not all four of these teams will be in the actual final 4, i.e., the bronze medal game and the gold-silver game."   Got that one right too, as the Russian hosts were eliminated early.

Wrong:  6  Right:  4

O.K. so I was too early on the GPM prediction and the Hillary Clinton prediction which brought me down, and we surprisingly didn't have more than one hurricane hit the East Coast.  But do I get credit because Arthur started as a low-pressure system inland before it moved over the ocean and then turned into a tropical storm, and then scraped by the Outer Banks?  NO.  But I tried.

No comments: