I've been saying this; so who's listening now?

 

Depends on how you define "flood".  Back when Roger Pielke Jr. and I were dialoguing on Twitter, he was pontificating (and may still be) about how data didn't show an increase in flooding due to climate change, particularly based on monetary expenditures for damage.  I pointed to him that because extreme rainfall events were increasing, it was very likely, though not yet quantified, that flash flooding was increasing too, and that causes damage as well, though maybe not over as large an area as a major river watershed (so the economic impact would be lessened until there are a lot more flash floods.)

Well, guess what?  Flash floods, due to extreme rainfall events, are increasing, according to the latest IPCC report.  (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, don'tcha know.)

Flash flood in China

Explainer: What the new IPCC report says about extreme weather and climate change

First context, then conclusions.

You need to know this:

In IPCC-speak, high confidence means there is at least a 8 in 10 chance of a finding being right.

And this:

"The report’s chapter on extreme weather focuses on two main forms of flooding that relate to rainfall – “pluvial” floods, which include surface water and flash flooding, and “fluvial” floods, which occur when a river or stream overflows its banks."

So then the IPCC says this:

"The IPCC is more certain about changes in pluvial flooding, concluding – with high confidence – that projected increases in the intensity of extreme rainfall “translates to an increase in the frequency and magnitude of pluvial floods…as pluvial flooding results from precipitation intensity exceeding the capacity of natural and artificial drainage systems”. "

I've been confident of that for years, and the IPCC is finally catching up.  I wonder if Roger Pielke Jr. will ever catch on. And a few other less notable lowlights as well.