Wednesday, March 30, 2011

You know it had to end SOMETIME

There has to be a finite amount of oil underground (even if oil shales and tar sands are counted), and modern civilization is currently burning those reserves at a prodigious rate. As daunting as the once-in-a-century (probably) tsunami-induced catastrophe at the Fukushima Daichi nuke plant is, modern civilization is going to contine to need more and more energy, and oil will run out.

The current prediction is in 50 years:
Less than 50 years of oil left, HSBC warns
“We’re confident that there are around 50 years of oil left,” Karen Ward, the [HSBC] bank’s senior global economist, said in an interview on CNBC.

The bank, the world’s second largest in assets, further cautioned that growth trends in developing countries like China could put as many as one billion more cars on the road by midcentury. “That’s tremendous pressure on oil to power all those resources,” Ms. Ward said.

Substitutes, such as biofuels and synthetic oil from coal, could fill the gap if conventional supplies fall short, but only if average oil prices exceed $150 per barrel, the report notes. Increasingly tight global supplies, meanwhile, are likely to cause “persistent and painful” price shocks, it says.

Some oil industry observers take a more optimistic view of future supplies, arguing that further development of Canadian tar sands, offshore discoveries in the Arctic and an expected surge in supply from Iraq will keep oil markets well-supplied for decades. Shale drilling has also managed to boost domestic oil production in the United States after years of decline.


Now, there has been some movement in making oil out of other stuff; a couple of days ago I talked about renewable oil from CO2, and there's always offal, this time in the form of chicken fat, as a biofuel feedstock.

Even NASA is looking at it (but fortunately not for spaceflight).
Chicken fat biofuel: eco-friendly jet fuel alternative?


But as long as fossil fuel is burned in a non-renewable way, climate change will be a problem, no matter if the United States public is more worried about lots of other things right now (like radioactive iodine from Japan -- that's a joke, son).

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