Saturday, April 4, 2015

Almost and probably

As of today (April 4, 2015), as I write this, the Washington Capitals have a 92.8% chance of making the Stanley Cup playoffs.   (Hockey for those you who are not sports-versed.) The Caps making the playoffs was one of my Undangerous Predictions for 2015, but it has not been a sure thing, and it still isn't. 

But if they defeat Ottawa in regulation tonight (meaning they win in the allotted sixty minutes, not in overtime or the shootout), then they're in.  Ottawa could still get in by passing  Boston or (gasp!) Pittsburgh, but not the Caps.

They will be playing the hottest goalie in the league right now, the "Hamburglar", Ottawa's Andrew Hammond. But stellar Alex Ovechkin didn't have much trouble scoring two on Montreal's MVP candidate goalie Carey Price.  I'll bet he wants to find out how porous the Hamburglar is, too. 

I'll put a postgame update on here, particularly if this becomes a fulfilled prediction.

Note:  I also made an Edgy Prediction that the Caps would get into the Stanley Cup Finals.  They have to make the playoffs first to do that.

POSTGAME UPDATE:  Well, not quite.  After a disastrous first period, which featured two consecutive 5-on-3 power plays for Ottawa -- they scored during both of them -- the Capitals came back to tie the score, putting the game into overtime.  That meant they couldn't clinch, and Ottawa ended up winning when they gave up a breakaway goal.

So, so fulfillment yet.  According to the statistical analysis, the Caps now have a 98.5% chance of making the playoffs.  Any kind of win combined with an Ottawa loss (even in OT), and they're in.   Since I'm invested now, I'll have another update tomorrow.   The Capitals play the Detroit Red Wings, who are good, and Ottawa plays Toronto, which is awful.  But in hockey, anything can happen and commonly does.

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