Thursday, April 16, 2015

I've heard this before


According to Eric Holthaus in Slate:


2015 Is Shaping Up to Be the Hottest Year on Record


Seems to me like it's a bit early to make that prediction.  But it is warm, everywhere but eastern North America, it seems.

But why?  WHY?

"The news comes amid increasingly confident forecasts that there will be a strengthening El Niño for the remainder of 2015, which could spark a litany of impacts worldwide, not the least of which is the more efficient transport of heat from the oceans to the atmosphere. That liberated heat from the Pacific Ocean should boost global temperatures to never-before-recorded levels, making 2015 the warmest year ever measured."

Funny how that El Niño that never quite arrived suddenly has transformed into an El Niño that won't go away.

But wait... there's more.

"The PDO [ Pacific Decadal Oscillation ]  has skyrocketed to record-high monthly levels over the past four months. In fact, there have only been four other similarly warm four-month bursts of the PDO in the last 115 years (in 1940, 1941, 1993, and 1997). A quick look at the historical record (for both 15 years prior to and 15 years after the bursts) shows that global temperatures rose at twice the rate of the 20th century average immediately after these bursts."

OK, I would say that bears watching.  Wouldn't you?



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